CGIAR Climate Security Explorer

The fact that climate exacerbates the risk for conflicts is increasingly recognized in academia, development, and policy, a common understanding of mechanisms and drivers is however still lacking. Establishing impact pathways between climate drivers and conflict has been challenging: Simultaneously acting drivers of conflict interact in different, sometimes opposed directions depending on geographical/spatial, temporal, social, and political dimensions. Conflicts itself are products of reciprocal feedback loops increasing vulnerabilities and potentially amplifying existing or creating new conflicts. Climate change adaptation and mitigation and development interventions often stimulate peace, but can also prompt new conflicts.

While the exact impact pathways and causal relationships for climate-induced conflicts remain controversial, various scientific reviews have come to a consent that: The link between climate and conflict will most likely materialize in regions that a) are highly exposed to climate change and variability, b) have, due to historical, political, social or geographical reasons, a high risk for (violent) conflicts and c) are agriculture-dependent.

Approaches addressing both, the impact of climate variability on food insecurity and strengthening government institutions are seen as instrumental for preventing conflicts and contributing to the prospects of peace. These approaches are central in CGIAR’s work.

Our portfolio analysis identified research, directly and indirectly, contributing to the prospects of peace. We first reviewed general literature on climate-related conflicts to establish a set of drivers relevant within the climate security nexus. We then conducted a keyword search on climate security-related drivers on different CGIAR platforms and repositories, to identify and extract key drivers and conflicts and from research items contributing to climate security in different ways .